Gaussian process bandits for tree search: Theory and application to planning in discounted MDPs

We motivate and analyse a new Tree Search algorithm, GPTS, based on recent theoretical advances in the use of Gaussian Processes for Bandit problems. We consider tree paths as arms and we assume the target/reward function is drawn from a GP distribution. The posterior mean and variance, after observing data, are used to define confidence intervals for the function values, and we sequentially play arms with highest upper confidence bounds. We give an efficient implementation of GPTS and we adapt previous regret bounds by determining the decay rate of the eigenvalues of the kernel matrix on the whole set of tree paths. We consider two kernels in the feature space of binary vectors indexed by the nodes of the tree: linear and Gaussian. The regret grows in square root of the number of iterations T, up to a logarithmic factor, with a constant that improves with bigger Gaussian kernel widths. We focus on practical values of T, smaller than the number of arms. Finally, we apply GPTS to Open Loop Planning in discounted Markov Decision Processes by modelling the reward as a discounted sum of independent Gaussian Processes. We report similar regret bounds to those of the OLOP algorithm.